Macro Regime Map

Classify 53 economies into regime buckets — goldilocks, stagflation, tightening, easing — so you know the macro backdrop before allocating.

Transition64% consensusAs of 2026-06-03

Mixed regime — no clear global consensus. Regional divergence dominates. Average credibility: 60/100 across 169 countries.

VIX15.77

DXY118.88

WTI Oil$95.96

Gold$0.00

Copper$12,528.71

Southeast Asia

Transition66 avg0.0 7d5

East Asia & Pacific

Stagflation64 avg-0.1 7d14

South Asia

Transition63 avg+0.1 7d7

North Africa

Transition62 avg-0.1 7d2

TUN57

MAR67

G10

Stagflation62 avg-0.1 7d8

Sub-Saharan Africa

Transition61 avg-0.1 7d44

East Asia

Transition61 avg+0.1 7d1

KOR61

Middle East

Stagflation60 avg-0.2 7d10

Europe & Central Asia

Transition60 avg-0.2 7d30

Latin America & Caribbean

Stagflation59 avg-0.1 7d20

South America

Stagflation59 avg-0.1 7d5

Middle East & North Africa

Transition59 avg-0.3 7d9

Caucasus

Transition59 avg+0.2 7d2

ARM58

GEO60

East Europe

Transition57 avg-0.1 7d9

Central Asia

Transition55 avg-0.2 7d2

KAZ47

UZB63

Central America

Transition52 avg0.0 7d1

MEX52

Country Rankings

#Tier

NERNiger

Sub-Saharan AfricaOverheating78+0.1-0.0—3/6 2

DZAAlgeria

Middle East & North AfricaTransition76-0.1-0.3+0.1%4/6 3

BENBenin

Sub-Saharan AfricaOverheating76-0.0-0.3—3/6 4

TGOTogo

Sub-Saharan AfricaOverheating76+0.0-0.2—3/6 5

CIVCote d'Ivoire

Sub-Saharan AfricaOverheating75-0.1+0.1—3/6 6

GTMGuatemala

Latin America & CaribbeanTransition75+0.1-0.3-0.1%4/6 7

KHMCambodia

East Asia & PacificOverheating75+0.0-0.4—4/6 8

MLIMali

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition74-0.1+0.9—3/6 9

SENSenegal

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition74-0.2-0.5—3/6 10

SLBSolomon Islands

East Asia & PacificTransition73-0.0+0.0—4/6 11

TCDChad

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition73+0.1+0.1—3/6 12

BFABurkina Faso

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition73-0.0+0.1—3/6 13

AZEAzerbaijan

Europe & Central AsiaTransition73+0.0-0.10.0%4/6 14

PHLPhilippines

Southeast AsiaTransition72+0.2+0.4+0.6%5/6 15

QATQatar

Middle EastOverheating72-0.1-0.3-0.1%4/6 16

TZATanzania

Sub-Saharan AfricaOverheating71+0.0-0.3—4/6 17

AREUnited Arab Emirates

Middle EastTransition71-0.1-0.40.0%4/6 18

NPLNepal

South AsiaStagflation70+0.0-0.3—4/6 19

SAUSaudi Arabia

Middle EastStagflation69+0.1-0.3+0.4%4/6 20

PERPeru

South AmericaTransition69+0.1+0.2-0.1%5/6 21

VNMVietnam

Southeast AsiaTransition69-0.0-0.5+0.0%4/6 22

DOMDominican Republic

Latin America & CaribbeanTransition69-0.0+0.1-1.7%4/6 23

BTNBhutan

South AsiaOverheating69-0.2-0.6—4/6 24

GINGuinea

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition69-0.1-0.3—4/6 25

MDAMoldova

Europe & Central AsiaTransition690.0+0.0+0.2%4/6 26

URYUruguay

Latin America & CaribbeanStagflation69-0.0-0.1+0.5%4/6 27

UGAUganda

Sub-Saharan AfricaOverheating68-0.1-0.5—4/6 28

TTOTrinidad and Tobago

Latin America & CaribbeanTransition68-0.2-0.5—4/6 29

PRYParaguay

Latin America & CaribbeanTransition68-0.2-0.2-0.2%4/6 30

GNQEquatorial Guinea

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition67-0.1-0.4—3/6 31

CZECzech Republic

East EuropeTransition67-0.1-0.6-0.2%5/6 32

BLRBelarus

Europe & Central AsiaOverheating67-0.0-0.7+2.7%4/6 33

CAFCentral African Republic

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition670.0+0.2—3/6 34

MARMorocco

North AfricaTransition67-0.0-0.3+0.0%5/6 35

TKMTurkmenistan

Europe & Central AsiaTransition67-0.1-0.9—3/6 36

KENKenya

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition67-0.1-0.5-0.1%4/6 37

HKGHong Kong SAR, China

East Asia & PacificTransition67-0.3-0.6+0.0%4/6 38

BRNBrunei Darussalam

East Asia & PacificTransition67-0.2-0.8—4/6 39

CRICosta Rica

Latin America & CaribbeanTransition67-0.3-0.9+1.1%4/6 40

LKASri Lanka

South AsiaOverheating67-0.1-0.6+1.0%4/6 41

TJKTajikistan

Europe & Central AsiaTransition66-0.1-0.7—4/6 42

KWTKuwait

Middle EastTransition66-1.2-2.4-0.2%4/6 43

SGPSingapore

East Asia & PacificTransition66-0.1-0.7+0.4%4/6 44

CMRCameroon

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition66-0.1-0.6—4/6 45

HUNHungary

East EuropeStagflation66+0.1-0.1+0.5%6/6 46

IRQIraq

Middle East & North AfricaStagflation66-0.2-0.7-0.0%4/6 47

BGRBulgaria

East EuropeTransition66-0.4-0.6+0.1%4/6 48

MDGMadagascar

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition66-0.0-0.1—4/6 49

POLPoland

East EuropeTransition65+0.5+0.6+0.3%6/6 50

ALBAlbania

Europe & Central AsiaTransition65-0.1-0.5+0.2%4/6 51

TLSTimor-Leste

East Asia & PacificStagflation65-0.1-0.6—4/6 52

BRABrazil

South AmericaTransition65-0.1-1.6+0.1%6/6 53

MRTMauritania

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition65-0.1-0.7—4/6 54

SOMSomalia, Fed. Rep.

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition65-0.1-0.4—3/6 55

ISRIsrael

Middle EastStagflation65+0.1+0.5+1.6%5/6 56

THAThailand

Southeast AsiaTransition65+0.0-0.1+0.1%5/6 57

VUTVanuatu

East Asia & PacificStagflation65-0.3-0.7—4/6 58

BWABotswana

Sub-Saharan AfricaStagflation65-0.1+0.1-0.2%4/6 59

KGZKyrgyz Republic

Europe & Central AsiaTransition65-0.3-0.9—4/6 60

PNGPapua New Guinea

East Asia & PacificTransition65-0.1-0.5—4/6 61

CHESwitzerland

G10Transition64-0.0-0.1+0.4%5/6 62

SRBSerbia

East EuropeTransition640.0-0.5+0.1%5/6 63

JAMJamaica

Latin America & CaribbeanTransition64-0.0-0.1+0.0%4/6 64

BHRBahrain

Middle EastTransition64-0.8-1.5-0.0%4/6 65

USAUnited States

G10Transition64-0.4-1.80.0%5/6 66

HNDHonduras

Latin America & CaribbeanTransition64+0.0-1.1—4/6 67

MYSMalaysia

Southeast AsiaStagflation64-0.2-0.7+0.7%4/6 68

AUSAustralia

G10Transition630.0+4.3-0.0%5/6 69

SWESweden

G10Stagflation630.0+0.1+0.9%5/6 70

AFGAfghanistan

Middle East & North AfricaTransition63-0.4-1.4—4/6 71

BIHBosnia and Herzegovina

Europe & Central AsiaStagflation63-0.1-0.5+0.2%4/6 72

UZBUzbekistan

Central AsiaTransition63-0.1-1.1-0.4%4/6 73

DNKDenmark

Europe & Central AsiaTransition63-0.2-0.8+0.1%5/6 74

NORNorway

Europe & Central AsiaTransition63-0.1-1.1+0.4%5/6 75

JORJordan

Middle EastTransition63-0.1-0.30.0%4/6 76

GABGabon

Sub-Saharan AfricaStagflation62-0.2-0.0—4/6 77

INDIndia

South AsiaTransition62+1.2-0.6+0.0%6/6 78

MLTMalta

Middle East & North AfricaTransition62-0.3-1.5+0.1%5/6 79

JPNJapan

G10Transition62-0.1-0.8+0.2%5/6 80

ZAFSouth Africa

Sub-Saharan AfricaStagflation62+0.1+0.2-0.2%5/6 81

ISLIceland

Europe & Central AsiaStagflation62-0.1-0.5+0.4%4/6 82

CANCanada

G10Transition62-0.1-0.5+0.4%5/6 83

CPVCabo Verde

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition62-0.1+0.0—4/6 84

GBRUnited Kingdom

G10Stagflation62-0.0+0.9-0.1%5/6 85

CHNChina

East Asia & PacificTransition61-0.3-1.3-0.1%5/6 86

OMNOman

Middle EastStagflation61-0.1-0.7+0.0%4/6 87

LBRLiberia

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition61-0.2-0.6—4/6 88

KORSouth Korea

East AsiaTransition61+0.1-0.7+1.8%5/6 89

NZLNew Zealand

East Asia & PacificStagflation61-0.1-1.1+0.4%5/6 90

ETHEthiopia

Sub-Saharan AfricaOverheating61-0.3-0.9—4/6 91

NICNicaragua

Latin America & CaribbeanTransition61-0.3-0.9—4/6 92

SWZEswatini

Sub-Saharan AfricaStagflation60-0.2-0.5—4/6 93

COGCongo, Rep.

Sub-Saharan AfricaStagflation60+0.0-0.6—4/6 94

GEOGeorgia

CaucasusTransition60+0.4-1.7-0.2%4/6 95

BGDBangladesh

South AsiaTransition60-0.1-0.9-0.0%4/6 96

COLColombia

South AmericaStagflation60-0.0-0.3-2.6%6/6 97

MNGMongolia

East Asia & PacificTransition59-0.0-0.50.0%4/6 98

CODCongo, Dem. Rep.

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition59-0.1-1.4—4/6 99

MUSMauritius

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition59-0.1-0.9+0.4%4/6 100

ECUEcuador

Latin America & CaribbeanStagflation59-0.1-0.50.0%4/6 101

CYPCyprus

Europe & Central AsiaTransition59-0.3-1.5+0.1%5/6 102

GUYGuyana

Latin America & CaribbeanTransition59-0.3-1.0—4/6 103

IRLIreland

Europe & Central AsiaTransition59-0.5-1.8+0.1%5/6 104

HRVCroatia

East EuropeTransition59-0.2-1.3+0.1%4/6 105

SLVEl Salvador

Latin America & CaribbeanTransition59-0.1-0.50.0%4/6 106

IRNIran, Islamic Rep.

Middle East & North AfricaTransition59-0.4-1.7+2.5%3/6 107

BHSBahamas, The

Latin America & CaribbeanStagflation59-0.2-0.9—4/6 108

PRTPortugal

Europe & Central AsiaStagflation59-0.3-1.1+0.1%5/6 109

SVKSlovak Republic

Europe & Central AsiaTransition59-0.2-1.2+0.1%5/6 110

IDNIndonesia

Southeast AsiaStagflation59-0.1+2.0+1.2%6/6 111

NAMNamibia

Sub-Saharan AfricaStagflation58-0.3-1.4—4/6 112

SVNSlovenia

Europe & Central AsiaTransition58-0.3-1.3+0.1%5/6 113

NLDNetherlands

Europe & Central AsiaTransition58-0.3-1.1+0.1%5/6 114

RWARwanda

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition58-0.2-0.8—4/6 115

FINFinland

Europe & Central AsiaStagflation58-0.2-1.3+0.1%5/6 116

BLZBelize

Latin America & CaribbeanStagflation58-0.3-1.3-0.0%4/6 117

LTULithuania

Europe & Central AsiaTransition58-0.2-1.4+0.1%5/6 118

ARMArmenia

CaucasusStagflation58-0.1-0.4+0.2%4/6 119

PAKPakistan

South AsiaStagflation58+0.0-0.8-0.1%4/6 120

CHLChile

South AmericaStagflation58-0.2+0.1+0.1%5/6 121

LSOLesotho

Sub-Saharan AfricaStagflation58-0.1-0.4—4/6 122

MOZMozambique

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition57-0.6-1.0—4/6 123

LUXLuxembourg

Europe & Central AsiaTransition57-0.2-1.1+0.1%5/6 124

ESPSpain

Europe & Central AsiaStagflation57-0.3-1.2+0.1%5/6 125

BELBelgium

Europe & Central AsiaStagflation57-0.3-1.3+0.1%5/6 126

TUNTunisia

North AfricaStagflation57-0.1-0.6-0.8%4/6 127

ITAItaly

Europe & Central AsiaStagflation57-0.3-1.4+0.1%5/6 128

FRAFrance

Europe & Central AsiaStagflation57-0.1-1.3+0.1%5/6 129

FJIFiji

East Asia & PacificStagflation57-0.0-0.4-0.7%4/6 130

GMBGambia, The

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition57-0.6-1.6—4/6 131

MKDNorth Macedonia

Europe & Central AsiaStagflation56-0.1-0.9+0.2%4/6 132

AUTAustria

Europe & Central AsiaStagflation56-0.2-1.2+0.1%5/6 133

BRBBarbados

Latin America & CaribbeanStagflation56-0.4-1.6—4/6 134

PANPanama

Latin America & CaribbeanStagflation56-0.2-0.80.0%4/6 135

LVALatvia

Europe & Central AsiaStagflation56-0.2-1.1+0.1%5/6 136

GRCGreece

Europe & Central AsiaStagflation56-0.2-1.1+0.1%5/6 137

MNEMontenegro

Europe & Central AsiaStagflation56-0.1-0.5+0.1%4/6 138

DEUGermany

G10Transition55-0.2-0.1+0.1%5/6 139

MMRMyanmar

East Asia & PacificTransition55-0.4-1.3—4/6 140

YEMYemen, Rep.

Middle East & North AfricaTransition54-0.3-0.9—4/6 141

ESTEstonia

Europe & Central AsiaStagflation54-0.1-1.5+0.1%5/6 142

LAOLao PDR

East Asia & PacificTransition54+0.0-0.8—4/6 143

ZMBZambia

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition54-0.1-0.8—4/6 144

SYRSyrian Arab Republic

Middle East & North AfricaTransition53-0.0+0.1—4/6 145

MWIMalawi

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition53-0.1-1.3—4/6 146

BDIBurundi

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition53+0.2-0.1—4/6 147

SLESierra Leone

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition53-0.5-1.5—4/6 148

HTIHaiti

Latin America & CaribbeanTransition53-0.1-1.2—4/6 149

AGOAngola

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition53-0.3-1.1—4/6 150

MDVMaldives

South AsiaStagflation53-0.2-0.6—4/6 151

MEXMexico

Central AmericaTransition52-0.0-0.2-0.3%5/6 152

LBYLibya

Middle East & North AfricaTransition50-0.5-2.3+0.3%4/6 153

ERIEritrea

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition50+0.1+0.1—4/6 154

ROURomania

East EuropeStagflation50-0.3-1.3+0.3%5/6 155

GHAGhana

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition50-0.3-1.4+10.1%4/6 156

SURSuriname

Latin America & CaribbeanTransition49-0.3-1.0—4/6 157

KAZKazakhstan

Central AsiaTransition47-0.3-1.5+1.7%4/6 158

LBNLebanon

Middle East & North AfricaTransition46-0.4-1.9—4/6 159

ARGArgentina

South AmericaTransition44-0.3-1.6+1.9%4/6 160

UKRUkraine

East EuropeTransition43-0.4-1.8+0.1%4/6 161

VENVenezuela, RB

Latin America & CaribbeanTransition40+0.3+1.2—4/6 162

SDNSudan

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition40-0.5-2.1—4/6 163

EGYEgypt

Middle EastTransition37-0.2-0.9-0.5%4/6 164

TURTurkey

Middle EastTransition36+0.1+0.2+0.2%6/6 165

NGANigeria

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition34-0.0-0.4-0.5%4/6 166

RUSRussia

East EuropeTransition33-0.3-1.1+4.0%5/6 167

BOLBolivia

Latin America & CaribbeanTransition310.0-1.1—4/6 168

ZWEZimbabwe

Sub-Saharan AfricaTransition31-0.3-1.5—4/6 169

SSDSouth Sudan

Sub-Saharan AfricaRecession Risk27+0.1+0.0—4/6

169 countries shown